In the blue corner, a 23-goal striker. In the red one, a 21-goal strike force. When Manchester City host Arsenal on Sunday, they will do so with opposing attitudes in attack. City have conventional wisdom on their side, in the shape of the potent, prolific Sergio Aguero, who is bidding to retain his Golden Boot.
Arsenal have the squad-rotation alternative, with Olivier Giroud (12 Premier League goals), Theo Walcott (five) and Danny Welbeck (four) just passing the 20-goal barrier between them. Look at the two teams above them and Leicester's Jamie Vardy has 22 league goals, while Tottenham's Harry Kane has 25. Spot the odd one out in the top four. It is Arsenal, so often the exception.
It is tempting to draw a conclusion why they have not won the league: It is because they lack a 20-goal-a-season striker; they are the lowest scorers in the top four and have the least productive forward line. Giroud and Walcott's striking failures, compounded by manager Arsene Wenger's reluctance to spend, doomed Arsenal from the start. Case closed.
And yet the reality is more complicated, the situation more nuanced. It is a statement of the obvious that Arsenal's chances would be enhanced with the addition of a more feared forward. It is tempting to wonder if they would be top now were Aguero leading their line. Yet it is possible to win the division without a 20-goal striker and with a job-share in attack. Arsenal know that from experience.
Wenger's first title in 1997-98, with 16-goal Dennis Bergkamp securing the individual honours for illustrations of technical perfection, also saw the Frenchman platoon Bergkamp's three sidekicks, the ageing Ian Wright (10 goals), the emerging Nicolas Anelka (six) and the understudy Christopher Wreh (three), with great effectiveness. Wright did not score a league goal for Arsenal in 1998, while Anelka only mustered one in 1997, but the succession worked smoothly.
It was one of three seasons, along with 1998-99 and 2008-09, when no one mustered 20 league goals. It was one of 11 Premier League campaigns when the champions lacked a 20-goal marksman. The notion that a Premier League champion requires one is a comparatively modern one, fuelled by the exploits of Aguero, Robin van Persie, Wayne Rooney, Cristiano Ronaldo and Thierry Henry, the latter being Golden Boot winner in each of Wenger's more recent title triumphs.
Cast minds back further and the collective commitment to scoring that the current Arsenal team need to possess was more fashionable. After the division's inception, Manchester United won their first five league titles without anyone reaching 20 goals. Jose Mourinho's first two crowns at Chelsea came when no striker managed more than 12. They were aided by a watertight defence, but it helped that they could source goals from all departments of the side.
Mourinho's 2004-05 team featured 10 goals from Didier Drogba and 12 from Eidur Gudjohnsen, but the Icelander was often deployed deeper. They also benefited from 21 from the three main wingers, in Arjen Robben, Damien Duff and Joe Cole, and 16 from Frank Lampard, the greatest individual contributor, from the centre of midfield.
Sir Alex Ferguson's Manchester United finished the 1990's as an advertisement for the merits of possessing four forwards, with the back-up duo of Teddy Sheringham and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer determining the 1999 Champions League final. If the shift to one-striker systems can render that comparison less meaningful, it is nonetheless notable that, while rivals had more regular scorers, Man United started winning with a target man, Mark Hughes, who contributed 28 goals over two triumphant campaigns, a No. 10, in Eric Cantona, who delivered 27, and a winger, in Ryan Giggs, who chipped in with 22, supported by a contingent of other lesser scorers. That United team did not have a specialist poacher, but had a range of accomplished footballers with different attributes.
Fast forward to the current day and it is not Arsenal's policy that is flawed as much as the personnel. The Giroud-Walcott job-share offers contrasting strengths. The principle that the Englishman's counter-attacking pace could offer much away from home, while the Frenchman's height could render him more useful when opponents defend deeper at the Emirates, is not necessarily incorrect. Its implementation, however, has been unsuccessful.
Certainly there are games when it feels that Wenger has opted for the wrong forward. More significantly, whereas Wright and Anelka peaked at different points in the season, Walcott and Giroud hit the wall at the same stage. They had combined for 15 league goals between them by the middle of January; just two more, one an inconsequential 90th-minute strike in a rout of Watford, have followed.
Giroud's top-flight drought is approaching the four-month mark, which represents a startling drop-off for a player whose previous 19 Arsenal appearances had yielded 14 goals. Walcott had an autumn burst of four in six in the Premier League and Champions League. But beginning on Boxing Day, he has managed just two in those competitions. Welbeck, the one brighter spot in 2016, should be exempt from criticism, though he has never proved prolific.
And in a game where high-calibre wingers, attacking midfielders and No. 10s greatly outnumber world-class strikers, Arsenal reflect a wider trend. With elite finishers like Luis Suarez, Karim Benzema, Robert Lewandowski, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Aguero tied up elsewhere, the options for buyers were fewer and, in some cases, unpromising.
So while Wenger can be faulted for assembling a strike force without anyone who has recorded 20 goals in an English league campaign, the context should be considered. The presence of such players, ones who can offer the team much but not the guarantee of vast quantities of goals, necessitates an input from others.
Alexis Sanchez, who averages almost a goal every other start, has delivered but, with Arsenal on course for their lowest goal tally in nine seasons, they are also entitled to ask if players as different as Mesut Ozil (six in 34 league games), Aaron Ramsey (five in 30), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (one in 22), Santi Cazorla (none in 14) and Per Mertesacker (none in 24) could have made up the deficit. Each has failed to reach his career average this season. One more goal apiece could have made a considerable difference. Two more each might well have done.
But non-scoring forwards represent the easiest targets, and sometimes the most deserving ones. The disappearance of Arsenal's title challenge can be attributed to the striking shortfall. Yet, while it makes matters much easier, it is very possible to win the league without a Golden Boot contender. Arsenal's inability to do so is less a failure of strategy than of execution.
Richard Jolly is a football writer for ESPN, The Guardian, The National, The Observer, the Straits Times and the Sunday Express.
